Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.
Something odd happened to me on Twitter yesterday. I responded to a tweet from the pro-Leave group Turning Point UK which showed two young women called "The Grant Sisters" speaking about Britain, Ireland and the Irish backstop with all the patronising fluency that apparently reading from an autocue would suggest.
I won't go through what they said. But just imagine being taught by condescending vacuous supply teachers and I think you would start getting the right impression.
I tweeted that I would want the sisters to speak about Ireland and the backstop ...in Ireland.... in front of the Irish and then they would get the cold chill of reality.
And to my amazement the likes to that tweet came in their hundreds.
Brexit has not caused a rift in the relations between Britain and the Irish Republic but the reaction to the Irish backstop has. You know that thing that's actually helped peace in all of Ireland for decades. And the thing is this. Why is Westminster so surprised that the Irish Republic are being firm on this? Why is Westminster so surprised that Dublin is acting in the Irish interest?
As for the Welsh Labour government it's trying to improve Wales-Ireland relations but truly it's hands are tied due to the mess the party has found itself in regarding it's attitude to Brexit. The only true clear thing about Labour policy here is that it's policy is as clear as mud.
What the British government has been under May, and even more so under Baboon Boris Johnson, is arrogantly incompetent. It is a lazy attitude. It smacks of disrespect of an independent nation. It also suggests Ireland is, even subconsciously, still a colony in their eyes.
But of course it is Wales and not Ireland that is the last truly Serf nation in Europe but as the calls for independence rises (including a leader piece in this week's Economist magazine) it's interesting to chat about what an independent Wales's relationship would be with it's other neighbour across the sea.
Now before going on this crystal ball gazing assume three things:
1) Brexit occurs
2) Wales will be independent
3) Whilst not a full EU member believing that the priority has to be the bedding down of independence, Wales is a member of the subsidiary EU organisations eg EFTA like Norway and Iceland (there it comes again. Iceland mentioned three times in this blog in just over a week!).
So where do begin? Well let's start with the obvious. Unless England turns into A State Of Denmark (The novel by Dereck Raymond depicting an undemorcratic England - though interestingly Scotland and Wales being independent - no longer as far fetched as it would appear even five years ago) Wales would still want to be good neighbours with the only country it shares a border with. After all good neighbours become good friends.
However even a most democratic and free thinking England will be resentful at Welsh independence. It would be after all a divorce so it should not be a surprise if it threw (even literally) road blocks along the way. Ireland would provide help to alleviate whatever England decides to do.
You might say why should it? After all Wales voted for Brexit. It seemed to tie itself to Westminster. But even now Wales is a different country to what it was then. Welsh independence would change the dynamic of the country. Of how it's viewed around the world. No longer would it be seen as a Serf nation of London. And Ireland would be one of the first countries it will need to reach out to. Being as it is the neighbour across the Irish sea
In the short term Ireland will be damaged by Brexit. But in the long term it will adjust as a member of the EU. It will have 26 other countries to help it and I'd argue would be in the longer term more prosperous than it has ever been. Consequentially it will become Wales' gateway back into Europe both as an example and as a route for easier trade. This would not be quick and simple for Wales. Nor indeed should it given it voted to get out and indeed as I stated before the bedding down of independence should be it's first priority not attempting to rejoin .
Also if England does go A State of Denmark route. Then there would be potentially security issues for the Celtic nations that surround it. And that includes the Republic. Therefore co-operation between Ireland, Scotland and Wales will be needed.
Now I'm not a fan of the "Celtic nation" idea combining the three nations together. But there are some shared issues and, ironically enough, the state of England could be one of them.
Socially relations between the Irish and the Welsh have always been good. I remember years ago being in a pub in Cardiff where after a Six Nations games the fans were having a whale of a time. I was the odd one out. Not because I'm English but because I don't drink (I was with the wife's brother who invited me). A big burly Irish guy put an arm on my shoulder and said:
"Why don't you get p*****?"
Under the circumstances not an unreasonable suggestion. Thankfully he wandered away singing something so that moral maze was avoided.
I've never been to Ireland. But based on the Irish people I know the "Italy with rain" tag I love about Wales does appear to apply to the Republic as well.
Good neighbours become good friends.
Until the next time.
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