If Brexit Is A Disaster Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales Would Be Independent. But Would London Survive?

Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.

Now as I've said before I don't believe that the worse case scenario with regard to Brexit will happen. Solely because it would be electoral suicide for the Conservatives should this occur (not that I believe our lives will be better because of Brexit. Far from it. Just a question of how worse). But at time of writing it's not beyond the bounds of possibility. So let's go all hypothetical. Because on a completely non scientific survey based on one and a half days in the South East, I'm getting a certain vibe regarding London.

We've all heard wherever we are about the current increased knife crime in London and the rising crime generally. What I didn't realise until yesterday is how this has gone into daily life even if a person has not experienced it themselves.

My mother, over a cup of tea with my aunt and me will mention in parting that she has a friend who in the last year has seen two scenes of crimes as a result of stabbings at the Westfield shopping centre in Stratford. Cousins after giving me a chicken roll will talk about gangs roaming the streets at night and how certain bus routes are banned after a certain time specifically because of violence in the area.

And whether these stories have a certain amount of exaggeration to them or not I don't know. But in a way that's not the point. The point is even exaggerated the perception is there and ingrained in the people living in London and the surrounding area. Crime or the fear of it seems to take part of people's conversations and in their thoughts to a level that I've never known before.

Now does it dawn on me that on the last time I was in Essex looking after my mother there was an item on the local TV news regarding vigilantes patrolling the streets of a particular London borough. That borough was Redbridge which I lived in from the mid seventies until the nineties. Such an idea would have never entered anyone's head then. Now however an unsurprising consequence of rising crime. (I've mentioned before in this blog about my shock regarding Ilford).

Before we go on about the hyptheticals of a worse case scenario Brexit let's not forget to mention the person responsible for all of this. Theresa May. As Home Secretary she presided over cuts of police patrolling the streets and, as I remember it, she was proud of doing so.

Really everything that woman touches turns into the brown stuff.

So into this mix of rising crime comes the worse case scenario Brexit. Already jobs in the financial sector from the City Of London are moving to the EU (even you will note in British banks as well). This would only increase That would have a ripple effect on the wider London economy causing greater job losses. If some people are able to find work it probably would be for much less money and on zero hour contracts.

London's drivers re the economy are basically the government being in Westminster, the media, the property market and the City of London. Worse case Brexit makes every one of those extremely fragile

That, added with possible shortages of food and medicine would make rising crime, and consequently riots probable. And how the authorities control the riots. If they control them would tell us all the shape of England to come. I say England because the other nations in the UK would have the get out option of independence, which though not without difficulties would still be preferable.

And again all of the above is a worse case scenario, which I don't believe will happen. But as it might happen then it's beholden to a UK government to plan for it now.

Until the next time.

Remembrance Of Things Past......In Ilford

Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.

I'm not going to write about the attack in Westminster. Not because I don't feel any sympathy for the family and friends of those who lost their lives or to those who died (bar one) but simply because I have nothing original to say and won't bore you rehashing what many other people have said already and will say in the future.

What I do want to chat about is a shooting that took place a few days ago. I won't go into the details about it because that would make me seem to be a vulture on grief. All I'll say about that is that the victim was (according to the London Evening Standard's website) ambushed by a gang.

The thing about this particular death, and it was what made me jolt up and take notice, was that it was a shooting in Ilford (which I'll say is in Essex although it could also be categorised as East London). My first instinctive reaction was "a shooting in Ilford?"

I am not someone who generally likes to reminisce. For the most part reminiscing causes a bittersweet quality at best and regret at worst. The last time I actively sort out the past was in September last year when I made the trip to London for the twenty fifth anniversary of my father's death and also said a belated goodbye to Upton Park.

Sometimes though the past catches up on you unawares and this was the case here. Up until I moved to South Wales in 1997 I regularly went to the town. But I've not been for about sixteen years.

When I was a child in the Seventies and living in Forest Gate East London. My mother and I used to take the bus (the numbers 25 or 86) for trips some Saturdays to Ilford. And much as I liked Forest Gate and would always defend it there was an excitement about these trips because Ilford was different.

For a boy between six and nine the town had a sort of glamour to it. The shops had a sort of style. There was Maison Riche. Your actual French no less. Of course in my more cynical teenage years I realised that it was really "Rich House".

It also had a TV where I could spend the time whilst my mother was clothes shopping appearing on TV for the first time. Of course that was on the security monitors they'd put up there but who cares? I was on TV.

It had a department store on a slope (Bodgers) and a massive BHS. If that building could tell the future it would have been in perpetual despair.

Most of all though it had W H Smith. More than any other shop the Ilford branch of W H Smith fuelled my love of reading. Part of the reason why I dislike the shop now is that I remember what it was like then.

And even as a more knowing teenager. When reality began to enter my vision. I still liked Ilford. Essex County Cricket club would play at least one Sunday league game in the local Valintines Park and I'd go to see them play.

Ilford on reflection began to change when further east, and definitely in Essex there was the creation of the Lakeside shopping centre. And the town was replaced as the place you would go to for "event shopping". They did build a shopping centre in Ilford, presumably to compete, but it wasn't the same.

Since moving to South Wales in 1997 I've only ever been back there twice. The last being about sixteen years ago so this week's event came as a complete shock to me. Shooting, a gang...has it changed that much?

The past they say is a different country and speaking from a different country it appears very much so.

Until the next time