Tuesday, 25 April 2017
A Tory Victory In Wales? If It Happens It Wont Last
Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.
Today the big political news is an opinion poll that suggests that the Conservatives could gain the biggest electoral share of the votes in Wales and gain the most seats. Now, this is the first poll and things could (and hopefully will) change. But let's be hypothetical here and say to ourselves "what if this poll proves to be accurate.....and why in Wales of all places?"
Let's discuss why are the Tories in a strong position. Well they are still benefiting from being the party dealing with Brexit and Wales voted for Brexit. I've said before that good people were mislead during the EU referendum, particularly on the issue of immigration. Nothing powers the right and the far right more than the perception (which is not be the reality but it doesn't matter image is king) of unfettered immigration.
And then there is Labour. It faces various issues. It's disunited on a UK level, in a Welsh level its record in the National Assembly and particularly in local government is that of incompetent arrogance, The days where Labour got votes simply for not being Conservatives have long since gone. As an example I have in this blog constantly gone to explain the urban tragedy that is Bridgend Town brought on I would argue by Labour neglect. Consequently a lot of people don't feel they owe them a debt. Their subliminal election slogan "We're Labour isn't that enough?" doesn't work anymore.
As for Plaid Cymru? The party I support? Perhaps I should explain something here. In a parallel universe Plaid Cymru are just as powerful in Wales as the SNP in Scotland. Leanne Wood has taken over from Dafydd Wigley and is contemplating Indyref 2. In this parallel Ieuan Wyn Jones did not become leader in between the two. Unfortunatly in the universe we're actually in he did. His tenure as leader was disasterous. He entered a National Assembly govt as a jumior partner and brought the party to such a low ebb that Ms Wood's strong achievement is to reverse that decline. His proposed return in this election would be a mistake.
And let us say one thing about Theresa May. I would argue that she is incompetent in every respect except the gaining and holding onto power. The analogy given to me on Twitter (@AlanHinnrichs all rights reseved etc) was of Mao. And it makes sense.
So if the unthinkable happens what then? Are we all going to a wide blue Tory tax heaven? Will Wales always have "and" before it aside from sporting events? No. For the factors that might lead to a Conservative victory could ultimately lead to its destruction and independence for Wales.
Let's start with the fallout from Brexit. If control is shown not to be in the EU but to various corparations abroad and they either pull the plug completely or reduce investment then it would have a knock on effect on communities. With Bridgend control has now moved to Detroit. The fate of the Ford plant there (and the knock on effects on the surrounding area) depends not on Europeans, or Britons but Americans.
Deprived communities will not take this lying down. There will be anger and resentment at Pro Leave Campaigners because the people will feel cheated. Living standards will decline and social cohesion will suffer. Conservatives will be venerable.
If we assume Labour is still in its civil war then people will look for an alternative. I've said before that I would rather have a gun pointed to my head than vote Tory. Others will feel the same way. Since Labour would be discredited Plaid will be there to pick up the pieces that a Brexit nightmare will inflict on Wales.
I've mentioned in the last post but one of an independence domino effect that Wales will not be immune from. A Brexit disaster will push the nation to run its own affairs....to "take back control".
Now I don't actually want this scenario to happen because it will mean an immense amount of pain to Welsh families across the country. We need to fight for a Plaid Cymru victory now. But should the Tories win Wales in 2017 it will not mean that independence is a lost cause.
Until the next time.
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I think you're being optimistic. There's been a cultural shift. It seems to me a section of Labour voters have gone Labour => Ukip => Tory.
ReplyDeleteThis is a nationalist vote. Issues of economics won't change them. After all, it hasn't done so far.
I think these people are sticking with the Tories. It's like to Labour to SNP shift in Scotland.
The only thing which will change the voting patterns of these people now is if Brexit is especially hard but, more importantly Tories are seen as being incompetent. In that case, they'll vote for a Blairite Labour party which will appeal to social liberals, with Euro realism - people who will feel they just want to get on with trade and not dogma. Basis Macron type party.
The tragic thing about this election is that it is totally uncalled for. Corbyn didn't have to agree to it. He should have laughed it off. Had that been the case, the imminent crisis caused by Brexit would have undermined the Tories.
Labour would have been mocked by Tories for Chickening out of the election but after a few days that would be old news.
A look at the intended votes for the local election sees Labour in front (but losing votes), Tories gaining votes and also Plaid gaining votes. All within some 11% of each another, which sort of matches my hunch of how the local election was going.
That would have been a decent, if un dramatic gain for Plaid and would not be as historic a break through for the Tories.
The huge mistake here was for labour to be so dull, naive and weak as to agree to this election. Had they not it would be no great news shock story.
Another great blog, but I must disagree this time.
ReplyDeleteWales is already lost, it was lost on 23rd June, we voted ourselves out of existence, it’s been horrible watching and reading the news as Scotland and Northern Ireland have been talked about and referenced repeatedly for their bold remain vote and sense of identity. Wales, if its ever mentioned is lumped in with England as backward, racist, and bigoted (which it is). All this election does is confirm the end, history will show Wales democratically voted itself out of existence twice.
And while most blame for Wales turning full Tory lies at Labour feet for its arrogance, tribalism and self-interest, Plaid Cymru share a good deal of blame too. Poor leadership, bad choices, no strategy and that’s just since the election was called.
What sort of leader (Leanne Wood) spends the opening campaign talking up her own chances in the Rhondda and then doesn’t follow through, Its not all about Leanne and she needs to realise that, but she’s also trying to manoeuvre a former leader (Ieuan Wyn Jones) into a 50/50 seat, it smacks of real desperation on Plaid Cymru’s part, something I’ve picked up over the weekend from chats with friends.
I’ve got a way out my Dad’s Swedish, I can apply for dual nationality and move there, I’d encourage others who can get out to leave because the next 30 years are going to make the last 30 look like a teddy bears picnic.