Carwyn Jones' Latest Problem: The Potential Closure Of An Unbuilt Factory

Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.

Well Welsh politics have moved into a stage since the suicide of Carl Sargeant which I cannot recall ever happening before. It's the sense that change is coming. Exactly what the change is I can't tell, But you feel that nothing will be the same again.

Of course the focus of this is Carwyn Jones. First Minister of the Welsh Government and previously though dull has nonetheless seemed secure in his job until now.

He has now stated that he acted with regard to the sacking and suspension of Mr Sargeant "by the book". That might be true, I've no idea. Though personally I would be surprised if the book included him giving television interviews and discussing the situation a day before Mr Sargeant's death. For the moment enquiries and the inquest to the former minister's death are ongoing. Most political parties are not attacking Mr Jones directly with regard to this tragedy. They are waiting for the results of these enquiries. But Mr Jones knows full well that nothing short of full and absolute backing for his actions will save him from a ferocious and angry onslaught to come.

For the moment the immediate issue as a consequence of Mr Sargeant's death has been the accusations of bullying within the Welsh Labour Party from various sources. This has been denied but then apparently conflicting statements emerge from Mr Jones. Never have you seen the First Minister look so uncomfortable.

But rather like your perception of Theresa May after her election disaster all of a sudden Carwyn Jones looks weak and venerable. And those issues which dogged his administration in the past and which he just seemed to brush off as if to say "We're Labour. Isn't that Enough?" when looked at now you realise that they are still there, and this time he's no longer in a position to be cocky.

After all, the situation with regard to the Welsh Education System is still so disastrous Wales Labour needs the help of a Libdem. The Health service is not in a contented state and as this blog has regularly discussed Bridgend voters have watched their area going downhill thanks to the arrogantly incompetent management of the Labour Council. A situation it seems not exclusive to Bridgend.

And then there's the economy. I have discussed before about the future of the Ford engine plant in Bridgend. My worry is that should the plant be closed down neither the Welsh government or the council are planning for this scenario. No one wishes it. No one. But failure to plan for the possibility is an abandonment of their responsibility as governing politicians

Which leads us to Aston Martin. To great fanfare they and the Welsh government announced that they were going to build a factory at St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan which is to start in 2019. However yesterday Aston Martin's Financial Officer said that if there was no Brexit deal they could stop making cars in the UK. Thus in the worst case scenario a factory could close before it's even built.

So again, whilst the Welsh Labour government cannot be blamed for the consequences for Brexit again it needs to plan for the worst case scenario for the area. Something I suspect it hasn't done. Still I'm sure the Welsh UK Secretary of State and Political Slimeball Conservtive Alun Cairns will stop merging Wales with England for once and try to help....after all he is the local MP.

(And as a quick aside. If this occurs I'm sure the Welsh Government offered grants and incentives. Would they get any of this money back?)

Now I'm not saying in the next UK general election people would stop voting Labour. As I've discussed before I suspect people will vote Labour if they feel they can kick out the Tories.

However for the next Assembly election things are much different. Labour looks far more exposed than it did. And as the only true home for disaffected Labour voters is Plaid Cymru. It needs to act prudently, but the possibility of the end of Labour dominance in the Welsh Assembly is not a pipedream anymore.

Until the next time.