Why Carwyn Jones' Future Is Uncertain

Hello there. Hope you're feeling well today.

So even in Essex, where I've been for the past few days,the death of  Welsh Assembly Member and former minister Carl Sargeant has made the UK news. It is worth reflecting that in the beginning of last week the man was a minister. In this short space of time he was sacked from the post because of allegations of inappropriate behaviour (which he denied), suspended from the Labour party pending an investigation and subsequently in such apparent mental turmoil that he took his own life.

I happen to know two women who knew Mr Sargeant. Both are distraught at his death. They had nothing but praise for him. One of them saying that if it wasn't for the distance involved she would have attended his funeral.

Of course that means nothing with regard to allegations against him. Let's be clear here the First Minister was right to sack him as minister and the Labour party was right to suspend him pending this investigation. Any action less than that would have smacked of a cover up.

And if he left it at that then fine. He could have just swatted off media questions by saying that an enquiry is underway, murmuring "due process" in a sentence and that was that.

But he didn't.

Instead he gave a series of interviews on Monday commenting on the allegations. And one of the biggest questions with regard to this whole affair is why did he do that? This is the question that the First Minister will have to answer one day.

These interviews are given Monday night.

Tuesday Mr Sargeant is found dead.

And what I believe this means for Carwyn Jones is that unless the allegations against Mr Sargeant are found to be unequivocally true, then the first minister will have to resign. If the result of the enquiry is that Mr Sargent was innocent, that the allegations were unproven or even if it was a case of actions being misconstrued (eg a hug on the shoulder) then Mr Jones will have to do the honourable thing.

As if that wasn't damaging enough for the Labour Party Leighton Andrews, a former AM has alleged  bullying in the Welsh Labour government and that Mr Sargeant was a target.

Carwyn Jones' position as head of Welsh Labour seemed rock solid a week ago.

Not anymore.

Until the next time.